World News from data (good & bad)
Significant changes vs. 10 days ago in transmission rates, ICU demand, and cases & deaths data.
- Transmission rate:
- โญ Bad news: new waves ๐ซ๐ท ๐ธ๐ณ ๐ธ๐ฌ ๐น๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฒ๐ท ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฆ๐น ๐ฎ๐ช ๐น๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ช ๐จ๐ญ ๐ท๐ธ ๐ป๐ณ ๐ท๐ด ๐ฑ๐น ๐ท๐ผ ๐ต๐ฑ
- ๐ข Good news: slowing waves ๐ฑ๐ง ๐ฑ๐ธ ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐พ ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ฌ๐ฒ ๐น๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ ๐ฒ๐น ๐ฌ๐น ๐จ๐พ ๐ฑ๐บ ๐ญ๐น ๐ฟ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฌ๐ท ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ฉ ๐ฑ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ฟ
- ICU need:
- โญ Bad news: higher ICU need ๐ซ๐ท ๐ง๐ผ ๐ซ๐ฏ ๐น๐ณ ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐ฒ๐น ๐จ๐บ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ช ๐ฌ๐ง ๐จ๐พ ๐ช๐ธ ๐ฒ๐พ ๐ฌ๐ท ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ต๐น ๐ฎ๐ท ๐บ๐ธ ๐ท๐บ ๐น๐ญ ๐ง๐ธ ๐ง๐ฉ ๐ท๐ผ ๐ฒ๐ผ ๐ฌ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ฐ ๐ฌ๐น ๐ฑ๐พ ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ช ๐ฒ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ธ ๐ง๐ฆ
- ๐ข Good news: lower ICU need ๐บ๐พ ๐จ๐ด ๐ง๐ท ๐ต๐พ ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ท ๐ฆ๐ท ๐ญ๐ณ ๐จ๐ฑ ๐ง๐ด ๐ฒ๐ณ ๐ง๐ญ ๐ฟ๐ฆ ๐น๐น ๐จ๐ท ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ป ๐ฆ๐ซ ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ช๐จ ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ต ๐ธ๐ฐ ๐ฒ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐บ ๐จ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ท ๐ฉ๐ด ๐ธ๐ช ๐ต๐ธ
- New cases and deaths:
- Deaths burden:
- Extras:
Large increase in transmission rate vs. 10 days ago, that might mean a relapse, new wave, worsening outbreak.
- Countries are sorted by size of change in transmission rate.
- Includes only countries that were previously active (more than 100 estimated new cases).
- "Large increase" = at least +2%.
Large decrease in transmission rate vs. 10 days ago, that might mean a slowing down / effective control measures.
- Countries are sorted by size of change in transmission rate.
- Includes only countries that were previously active (more than 100 estimated new cases).
- "Large decrease" = at least -2%.
Large increases in need for ICU beds per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.
- Only countries for which the ICU need increased by more than 0.2 (per 100k).
Large decreases in need for ICU beds per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.
- Only countries for which the ICU need decreased by more than 0.1 (per 100k).
Countries that have started their first significant outbreak (crossed 1000 total reported cases or 20 deaths) vs. 10 days ago.
New countries with no new cases or deaths vs. 10 days ago.
- Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths and had an active outbreak previously.
New countries with no new deaths (only new cases) vs. 10 days ago.
- Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths and had an active outbreak previously.
Countries that had no new cases or deaths 10 days ago or now.
- Only considering countries that had at least 1000 estimated total cases and at least 10 total deaths.
- Caveat:these countries may have stopped reporting data like Tanzania.
Countries with significantly higher recent death burden per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.
- "Significantly higher" = 100% more.
- Only considering countries that had at least 10 recent deaths in both timeframes, and death burden of at least 0.1 per 100k.
Countries with significantly lower recent death burden per 100k population vs. 10 days ago.
- "Significantly lower" = 50% less
- Only considering countries that had at least 10 recent deaths in both timeframes, and death burden of at least 0.1 per 100k.
Extras:
Future model projections plots
For countries in any of the above groups. To see more details and methodology go to main notebook